Research papers and working papers from the Space Finance Institute.
A framework for financial markets constrained by the finite speed of information. An information-velocity limit defines causal domains analogous to light cones, and arbitrage is realisable only where those domains overlap. The no-arbitrage condition is restated under causal filtrations, building on the established theory of asset pricing under delayed and restricted information.
The paper proves an obstruction result on which dynamics can carry martingale prices, derives an operational bound on arbitrage reach from signal-survival probability, and derives the maturity-dependent hedging cost of communication blackouts, with a worked Earth–Mars example. As information speed grows without bound the model converges to classical finance.
Version 2 (July 2026) revises and corrects the original and consolidates the programme's technical material into this single paper; the version note in the paper details the changes.
Capital markets are built on synchronised clocks. This paper extends financial market theory into regimes where communication delays become economically significant: light cones replace synchronised time, causality bounds replace arbitrage bounds, and spacetime geometry shapes market structure.
The observation that light speed bears on markets is not new; a scattered literature has developed its fragments separately. This paper's contribution is synthesis and operationalisation: causal market regimes are formalised, institutional mechanisms are proposed on top of emerging off-Earth time standards, and an empirical agenda is set out as designs any researcher with the data can execute.
Version 2 (July 2026) repositions the paper within the prior literature and corrects the original; the version note in the paper details the changes.
Current work applies securitisation practice to space assets: financing structures that must function where collateral cannot be observed, inspected, or repossessed during transit. Alongside it, an empirical agenda on latency and asset prices is set out in the papers above for any researcher with the data to execute.
Our reading of the surrounding literature is public. The Observatory is a living map of the finance-under-physical-constraint literature — the works, who wrote them, and the citations that should exist but don't. Data is CC BY; suggestions are welcome.
If you cite our research, please use standard academic citation formats. Full citation information and BibTeX entries are available on each SSRN page.
For working papers not yet published, please contact us for the most current version and appropriate citation format.